Global epidemiology of cirrhosis - aetiology, trends and predictions.

Cirrhosis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in people with chronic liver disease worldwide. In 2019, cirrhosis was associated with 2.4% of global deaths. Owing to the rising prevalence of obesity and increased alcohol consumption on the one hand, and improvements in the management of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections on the other, the epidemiology and burden of cirrhosis are changing. In this Review, we highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, discuss the contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, examine projections for the burden of cirrhosis, and suggest future directions to tackle this condition. Although viral hepatitis remains the leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis are rising in several regions of the world. The global number of deaths from cirrhosis increased between 2012 and 2017, but age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) declined. However, the ASDR for NAFLD-associated cirrhosis increased over this period, whereas ASDRs for other aetiologies of cirrhosis declined. The number of deaths from cirrhosis is projected to increase in the next decade. For these reasons, greater efforts are required to facilitate primary prevention, early detection and treatment of liver disease, and to improve access to care.

Global epidemiology of cirrhosis — aetiology, trends and predictions

Cirrhosis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in people with chronic liver disease worldwide. In 2019, cirrhosis was associated with 2.4% of global deaths. Owing to the rising prevalence of obesity and increased alcohol consumption on the one hand, and improvements in the management of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections on the other, the epidemiology and burden of cirrhosis are changing. In this Review, we highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, discuss the contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, examine projections for the burden of cirrhosis, and suggest future directions to tackle this condition. Although viral hepatitis remains the leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis are rising in several regions of the world. The global number of deaths from cirrhosis increased between 2012 and 2017, but age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) declined. However, the ASDR for NAFLD-associated cirrhosis increased over this period, whereas ASDRs for other aetiologies of cirrhosis declined. The number of deaths from cirrhosis is projected to increase in the next decade. For these reasons, greater efforts are required to facilitate primary prevention, early detection and treatment of liver disease, and to improve access to care. In this Review, Huang et al. highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, including contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, and consider what needs to be done to address projected increases in the burden of cirrhosis. Key points Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains the leading cause of global deaths related to cirrhosis, followed by alcohol-associated liver disease. The global burden of cirrhosis associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has increased substantially in the past decade. In the Americas, the dominant cause of cirrhosis is shifting from viral hepatitis to NAFLD and alcohol-associated liver disease. The COVID-19 pandemic has set back progress in the elimination of HCV and hepatitis B virus, and most countries are not on track to meet the WHO viral hepatitis elimination targets. The focus of care should be shifted upstream towards primary prevention and early detection of liver disease to reduce the global burden of cirrhosis.

Modeling HCV elimination recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: Pathways to regain progress.

BACKGROUND: As of 2019, the United States (US) was not on track to achieve targets for elimination, due to increasing incidence and treatment barriers. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted HCV services globally and in the US. As healthcare services normalize, there is an urgent need to reassess progress and evaluate scenarios that restore a pathway toward HCV elimination. METHODS: We updated a validated Markov model to estimate HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the US. Five scenarios were developed to bookend possible HCV outcomes in the wake of the pandemic. These included 1) return to pre-COVID-19 treatment forecasts; 2) achieve elimination targets through treatment and harm reduction; 3) long-term treatment disruptions; 4/5) achieve elimination targets through increased treatment without increased harm reduction, starting in either 2022 or 2025. FINDINGS: From 2014-2019, more than 1.2 million patients were treated for HCV in the US. Elimination targets in 2030 could be achieved in the US by treating an additional 3.2-3.3 million patients from 2020 to 2030, or by preventing new infections through expanded harm reduction programs and treating up to 2.7 million patients. Intervention scenarios could prevent over 30,000 HCC cases and over 29,000 liver-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: The US has made strides toward HCV elimination, but gains could be lost in the wake of the pandemic. However, it is still possible to avert nearly 30,000 deaths through increased harm reduction and increased treatment rates. This requires a coordinated effort from the entire HCV community.

Naltrexone for alcohol use disorder: Hepatic safety in patients with and without liver disease.

Naltrexone is an approved drug for management of alcohol use disorder (AUD), but data in patients with liver disease (LD) are limited. We aimed to evaluate the safety of naltrexone in those with LD. This is a retrospective cohort of adults with and without LD who were prescribed naltrexone for AUD from 2015 to 2019 in a safety-net setting. Naltrexone hepatic safety was determined by liver enzyme changes during and after compared to before naltrexone prescription as well as rates of subsequent hospitalization and death by Kaplan-Meier methods. Factors associated with hospitalization were examined by Cox regression. Of 160 patients prescribed naltrexone for AUD, 100 (63%) had LD and 47 (47%) of those with LD had cirrhosis (47% decompensated). The total cohort, LD, and cirrhosis groups had lower adjusted mean aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase levels after versus before naltrexone prescription (p < 0.001). Two-year survival was 97.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 84.6-99.7), 95.4% (95% CI, 82.8-98.8), 90.8% (95% CI, 73.5-97.0), and 81.3% (95% CI, 41.2-93.8) in those without LD, LD without cirrhosis, cirrhosis, and decompensated cirrhosis groups (p = 0.46), respectively. Alcohol-related 2-year hospitalization rates were 8.2% (95% CI, 2.7-24), 27.7% (95% CI, 16.6-44.0), 40.5% (95% CI, 24.8-61.6), and 41.7% (95% CI, 23.3-66.6) for the groups without LD, LD without cirrhosis, cirrhosis, and decompensated cirrhosis (p = 0.007), respectively. Independent predictors of subsequent hospitalization were LD, (hazard ratio [HR], 3.70; 95% CI, 1.19-11.51; p = 0.02), cirrhosis (HR, 5.16; 95% CI, 1.69-15.75), and shorter duration (≤30 days) of naltrexone prescription (HR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.l2-5.20; p = 0.01). Conclusion: Naltrexone is safe to use in patients with underlying LD, including those with compensated cirrhosis. Although encouraging, more safety data are needed for those with decompensated cirrhosis.

Alcohol use trajectories among U.S. adults during the first 42 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: This study characterized the prevalence, drinking patterns, and sociodemographic characteristics of U.S. adult subpopulations with distinct drinking trajectories during the COVID-19 pandemic's first 42 weeks. METHODS: Adult respondents (n = 8130) in a nationally representative prospective longitudinal study completed 21 biweekly web surveys (March 2020 to January 2021). Past-week alcohol drinking frequency (drinking days [range: 0 to 7]) and intensity (binge drinking on usual past-week drinking day [yes/no]) were assessed at each timepoint. Growth mixture models identified multiple subpopulations with homogenous drinking trajectories based on mean drinking days or binge drinking proportional probabilities across time. RESULTS: Four drinking frequency trajectories were identified: Minimal/stable (72.8% [95% CI = 71.8 to 73.8]) with <1 mean past-week drinking days throughout; Moderate/late decreasing (6.7% [95% CI = 6.2 to 7.3) with 3.13 mean March drinking days and reductions during summer, reaching 2.12 days by January 2021; Moderate/early increasing (12.9% [95% CI = 12.2 to 13.6) with 2.13 mean March drinking days that increased in April and then plateaued, ending with 3.20 mean days in January 2021; and Near daily/early increasing (7.6% [95% CI = 7.0 to 8.2]) with 5.58 mean March drinking days that continued increasing without returning to baseline. Four drinking intensity trajectories were identified: Minimal/stable (85.8% [95% CI = 85.0% to 86.5%]) with <0.01 binge drinking probabilities throughout; Low-to-moderate/fluctuating (7.4% [95% CI = 6.8% to 8%]) with varying binge probabilities across timepoints (range:0.12 to 0.26); Moderate/mid increasing (4.2% [95% CI = 3.7% to 4.6%]) with 0.39 April binge drinking probability rising to 0.65 during August-September without returning to baseline; High/early increasing trajectory (2.7% [95% CI = 2.3% to 3%]) with 0.84 binge drinking probability rising to 0.96 by June without returning to baseline. Males, Whites, middle-aged/older adults, college degree recipients, those consistently working, and those above the poverty limit were overrepresented in various increasing (vs. minimal/stable) frequency trajectories. Males, Whites, nonmarried, those without college degree, 18 to 39-year-olds, and middle aged were overrepresented in increasing (vs. minimal/stable) intensity trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Several distinct U.S. adult sociodemographic subpopulations appear to have acquired new drinking patterns during the pandemic's first 42 weeks. Frequent alcohol use assessment in the COVID-19 era could improve personalized medicine and population health efforts to reduce drinking.

Impact of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 Pandemic on Hepatology Practice and Provider Burnout.

The corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a wide-ranging impact on the clinical practice of medicine and emotional well-being of providers. Our aim was to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on practice and burnout among hepatology providers. From February to March 2021, we conducted an electronic survey of American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) members who were hepatologists, gastroenterologists, and advanced practice providers (APPs). The survey included 26 questions on clinical practice and emotional well-being derived from validated instruments. A total of 230 eligible members completed the survey as follows: 107 (47%) were adult transplant hepatologists, 43 (19%) were adult general hepatologists, 14 (6%) were adult gastroenterologists, 11 (5%) were pediatric hepatologists, 45 (19%) were APPs, and 9 (4%) were other providers. We found that 69 (30%) experienced a reduction in compensation, 92 (40%) experienced a reduction in staff, and 9 (4%) closed their practice; 100 (43%) respondents reported experiencing burnout. In univariate analysis, burnout was more frequently reported in those ≤55 years old (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-4.2), women (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.7), nontransplant hepatology (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3), APPs (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.4-5.1), and those less than 10 years in practice (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3). In multivariable analysis, only age ≤55 years was associated with burnout (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-4.8). The most common ways the respondents suggested the AASLD could help was through virtual platforms for networking, mentoring, and coping with the changes in practice due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the clinical practice of hepatology as well as burnout and emotional well-being. Women, APPs, and early and mid-career clinicians more frequently reported burnout. Identified strategies to cope with burnout include virtual platforms to facilitate networking and mentoring.

Addressing Social Determinants of Liver Disease During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond: A Call to Action.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed healthcare inequities in the USA and highlighted the importance of social conditions in shaping the health of persons. In the field of hepatology, social determinants of health (SDOH) are closely linked to disparities in liver disease prevalence, outcomes, and access to treatment. The economic disruption and physical distancing policies brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have further exacerbated these disparities, and may have long-lasting health consequences for marginalized patients with chronic liver disease. There are several ways that hepatology providers can bridge the gap in health equity through addressing SDOH, extending from the individual to the community and societal levels. Interventions at the individual level include implementation of systematic screening for social barriers in our hepatology practices to identify gaps in the care cascade. At the community and societal levels, interventions include creating collaborative partnerships with public health workers to expand healthcare access to the community, increasing funding for research investigating the association of SDOH, health disparities, and liver disease, engaging in advocacy to support policy reform that tackles the upstream social determinants, and addressing racism and implicit bias. As hepatology practices adapt to the "new normal," now is the time for us to address our patients' social needs within the context of healthcare delivery and reimagine ways in which to provide care to best serve our most vulnerable patients with liver disease in the COVID-19 era and beyond.

Clinical Research in Hepatology in the COVID-19 Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Era: Challenges and the Need for Innovation.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic has drastically altered all facets of clinical care and research. Clinical research in hepatology has had a rich tradition in several domains, including the discovery and therapeutic development for diseases such as hepatitis B and C and studying the natural history of many forms of chronic liver disease. National Institutes of Health, foundation, and industry funding have provided important opportunities to advance the academic careers of young investigators while they strived to make contributions to the field. Instantaneously, however, all nonessential research activities were halted when the pandemic started, forcing those involved in clinical research to rethink their research strategy, including a shift to coronavirus disease 2019 research while endeavoring to maintain their preexisting agenda. Strategies to maintain the integrity of ongoing studies, including patient follow-up, safety assessments, and continuation of investigational products, have included a shift to telemedicine, remote safety laboratory monitoring, and shipping of investigational products to study subjects. As a revamp of research is being planned, unique issues that face the research community include maintenance of infrastructure, funding, completion of studies in the predetermined time frame, and the need to reprogram career path timelines. Real-world databases, biomarker and long-term follow up studies, and research involving special groups (children, the homeless, and other marginalized populations) are likely to face unique challenges. The implementation of telemedicine has been dramatically accelerated and will serve as a backbone for the future of clinical research. As we move forward, innovation in clinical trial design will be essential for conducting optimized clinical research.